{"id":2142,"date":"2026-08-31T19:35:37","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T19:35:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogig.site\/?p=2142"},"modified":"2026-08-31T19:41:46","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T19:41:46","slug":"barack-obamas-big-lesson","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogig.site\/?p=2142","title":{"rendered":"Barack Obama\u2019s Big Lesson"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

After Obama, the party moved left on one big issue after another \u2014 Medicare, gender, border security, policing and more. It\u2019s true that Kamala Harris tried to move back to the center this year, but her moderation never had the self-assurance that Obama\u2019s did. It could seem tactical and reluctant. She refused to explain why she had changed her mind about fracking, border security and \u201cMedicare for all.\u201d When asked whether she supported any abortion restrictions, she avoided the question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Democrats\u2019 post-Obama leftward turn was based on a specific theory of the electorate: that the country\u2019s growing number of voters of color would cover the loss of working-class whites. Under this race-centric theory, Donald Trump looked like a gift to Democrats. He made racist and sexist comments. He resembled a caricature of the backward voters Democrats were happy to leave behind.<\/ins><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the Democrats\u2019 theory was wrong. As they moved away from Obama\u2019s approach and toward the purer progressivism that\u2019s popular among college professors, pundits and activists, the party didn\u2019t win over more voters of color. Instead, Democrats have lost ground with every major racial group except white voters<\/em>, as Nate\u2019s analysis shows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A key reason is that Trump\u2019s anti-establishment populism appealed to working-class voters across racial groups. Trump also helped himself by adopting a mirror image of Obamaism and seeming to reject Republican orthodoxy on subjects like Social Security, Medicare, abortion and foreign wars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Different though they are, both Obama and Trump approach politics as if class matters more than race. Sure enough, Trump\u2019s biggest gains have come among the nonwhite working-class voters who were Obama\u2019s strongest supporters:<\/ins><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As the Democratic Party tries to figure out a way forward, it can\u2019t merely mimic Obama. The country has changed, partly because of Trump. Nor can the party assume that the answer is simply to moderate its position on everything. The Democrats who won tough races this year were more heterodox. They sometimes sounded like Bernie Sanders when talking about foreign trade or corporate America and Joe Manchin when talking about government regulation or social issues. They also sounded authentic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, Obama\u2019s success remains relevant. It highlights the importance of treating working-class voters\u2019 opinions respectfully rather than talking down to those voters. And it\u2019s a reminder that no Democrat since Obama has come up with an approach that works as well as his did.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Presidents<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela was a South African anti-apartheid activist and politician who served as the first president of South Africa from 1994 to 1999. He was the country\u2019s first black head of state and the first elected in a fully representative democratic election<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nelson<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

One hundred years ago, Nelson Mandela was born in the South African village of Mvezo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Wednesday, I had the honor of celebrating his remarkable life by sharing a few lessons I\u2019ve taken from him with the people of South Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019d like to share what I believe to be the most important of those lessons today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"President
Photo by David Katz.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I believe that the most important thing that we can take away from Madiba\u2019s life today is that the persistent struggle for hope, for justice and equality\u2014for the long walk to freedom\u2014requires a belief in youth.<\/ins><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As strong as Madiba\u2019s spirit may have been, he would not have sustained his hope had he been alone in his struggle. Part of what buoyed him up was that he knew that, each year, the ranks of young leaders were replenishing. He knew that young men and women\u2014black and Indian and white, from across the countryside, across the continent, around the world\u2014would, in those most difficult days, keep working on behalf of his vision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Obama's<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Obama:<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Today, more than ever, I believe in Nelson Mandela\u2019s vision: that every generation has the opportunity to remake the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here, in South Africa, my Foundation convened 200 young people from across this continent who are doing the hard work of making change in their communities; men and women who reflect Madiba\u2019s values; the youth who are poised to lead the way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

People like Abaas Mpindi, a journalist from Uganda, who founded the Media Challenge Initiative to help other young people get the training they need to tell the stories that the world needs to know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nelson<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

People like Caren Wakoli, an entrepreneur from Kenya, who founded the Emerging Leaders Foundation to get young people involved in the work of fighting poverty and promoting human dignity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

People like Enock Nkulanga, who directs the African Children\u2019s Mission, which helps children in Uganda and Kenya get the education they need.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Thursday, I had the opportunity to join these young leaders in an act of service at the Far North Secondary School in Johannesburg to commemorate the anniversary of Mandela\u2019s birth. Though the work we did was simple\u2014cleaning windows, building benches, painting murals\u2014it left me with a profound sense of hope.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nelson<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

By working together to build a better life for the children of the school, this new generation of leaders was honoring Mandela\u2019s life and legacy. And they reminded me of one of my favorite quotes of his: \u201cThere can be no greater gift than that of giving one\u2019s time and energy to helping others without expecting anything in return.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

None of us can rest on the accomplishments of the past, even those as momentous as Mandela\u2019s. But if we live our values and empower our young people, then they can pick up the work of the last 100 years, and lead us into the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"David<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WASHINGTON \u2014  Because they are all-or-nothing contests, American elections lend themselves to over-interpretation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1988, Republican Vice President George H.W. Bush defeated Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis, winning more than 400 electoral votes \u2014 a mark that seemed routine at the time, but which no presidential candidate in either party has hit since.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The election marked the third lopsided victory in a row for the Republicans. Analysts declared the GOP had a lock on the electoral college.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Something<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Bill Clinton picked the lock four years later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2004, Bush\u2019s son, President George W. Bush, won reelection. His electoral victory was much smaller than his father\u2019s, but the coalition he put together seemed robust. His backers, and some nonpartisan analysts, claimed that the GOP had achieved a long-term, stable majority.<\/ins><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That putative majority barely lasted two years. Democrats recaptured the House in the 2006 midterm election, and in 2008, then-Sen. Barack Obama shattered the idea of long-term Republican dominance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Making<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

With Obama\u2019s victory, it was Democrats\u2019 turn to declare that a long-term majority was within their grasp, courtesy of demographic trends that would make the American electorate less white, more college educated and more liberal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Joe<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The demographic trends proceeded as forecast, the political consequences, not so much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve lived that history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 1988 campaign was the first of eight that I\u2019ve covered, and I\u2019ve spent much of the past 36 years writing about American politics as it has become more rigidly polarized, more partisan and more calcified, to borrow a term from political scientists Lynn Vavreck, John Sides and Chris Tausanovitch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since September 2015, I\u2019ve written this weekly newsletter\/column, aiming to understand and analyze the changing nature of politics in what turned out to be the era of Donald Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\u00d4ng<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This is the last one. After writing on deadline for more than four decades, it\u2019s time to retire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ending brings me back to the beginning \u2014 the perils of over-interpretation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"How<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This year\u2019s election brought striking changes to the electorate:<\/p>\n\n\n\n